Forbes predicts MR will win in the next presidential election – Local parties are mum of Forbes magazine predictions

By J.Yogaraj – Senior Journalist & Announcer ( S L B C )

World’s leading business magazine Forbes has come up with a spectacular prediction on an island far from New York City. The magazine gives predictions to many super power countries. But I think this is the first time the magazine selected Sri Lanka for an important prediction. And this prediction is completely different from the subject it handles.

“Problem solving is an application of creative thinking applied to a specific issue. Scientists and engineers in particular, are taught to look beneath the surface to the root of what might be causing difficulties. Sometimes problem leap to the surface but very often they lie well beneath the surface and only careful investigation, coupled with pursuit of careful question and analysis, will yield the source of the problem. Even then solutions may be long and coming.”-This is one of the policy being adopted by Forbes.

Normally Forbes predictions will not go wrong. A strong verdict is given with a deep analysis. This is well confirmed by the past statistics. Forbes magazine has changed many government’s political systems. It has the ability and potential change the whole economic structure of a country. You might wonder how a simple magazine can do these changes. True enough , the editorial team of the magazine work hard on many factor to conclude on certain subject.

But Forbes magazine used to analyze the business sector of a company or a country. There are times the magazine go beyond its limits analyze about other subjects such as politics, economic growth, development and peace. Accordingly the magazine came up with a significant prediction about Sri Lankan politics recently. This shows that New York based world’s leading magazine also focused about this tiny island. Forbes magazine also quoted some reasons for its prediction that MR will win the next presidential election. Some of the points are listed below :

MR- image 1

You will also find the excerpts of  the gathered information below.

Giving Ten Reasons to Invest in Sri Lanka, a Forbes editorial states that from an investor’s point of view, the case for Sri Lanka is getting strong.

Sri Lanka has one of the best cases for an economy with the stars aligned in its favor, it is stated.

The article also stated: President Rajapaksa recently called for elections in January 2015, a full 16 months ahead of when they would be required. Under his leadership, the civil war ended in 2009, term limits for the presidency were removed in 2010, a wave of infrastructure investment has been engaged and the country’s economy has experienced a still rising peace dividend. The previous election in 2010 resulted in his party taking a little over 60 per cent of the seats in Parliament.

In provincial elections in March and September of this year, President Mahinda Rajapaksa’s United People’s Freedom Alliance (UPFA) party obtained  55% of the vote in two provinces in March and 51% in the one province in September. With no other party gaining more than 40% of the vote in any of these elections, the only question in January is how significant the UPFA majority will be in parliament after January’s elections.

“The market has witnessed a bullish sentiment due to the prevailing low interest rate scenario. Assuming this trend continues, the market will continue its bullish trend. Next year being an election year, I would assume the market to further strengthen its position due to elections defining a clear political scenario,’ Springer states quoting Harsha Fernando, Director and Chief Executive Officer of local brokerage SC Securities (Pvt) Limited.

“We feel that the Colombo Bourse will continue to be a benefactor of the low interest rate regime, we have seen from the beginning of the year and will realize good returns for the next few years. With the bank loan growth expected to gradually start picking up, companies will reap the benefits of the conducive environment and should be backed by strong corporate earnings growth. Meanwhile with political stability and the country’s economy poised to grow plus 7 per cent over the next 3 years, we do not see any reason why the stock market would not perceive a steady rise”, Dihan Dedigama, CEO of Softlogic Stockbrokers concurs, has opined.

Springer says that however Ceylon Asset Management has made the boldest prediction: He reiterated to me last night by their Economic Advisor, Michael Preiss: We expect 25% growth in the equity market on average per year for the next five years. If you think about it, that isn’t that much based on 7 to 8% growth in the economy annually. What people don’t realize is that on a per capita basis, Sri Lanka is twice as rich as India.

Preiss went on to say that India was an out of favor place for investments a year and a half ago but is now a popular place to invest with a high performing market since Prime Minister Narendra Modi was elected. There are two ways growth in India’s economy can benefit Sri Lanka:

  • Based on trade relations and proximity, positive economic news for India is also positive for Sri Lanka.
  • Preiss believes that as more money flows into India, investors will take the time to consider other countries in the region to invest which will net positive results for Sri Lanka.

Citing the steady rise in tourism Jon has marked the 26-year civil war as obviously bad for tourism. As a result Sri Lanka’s beaches, cultural sites, wildlife and natural beauty had multiple decades with minimal amounts of tourism. But ” in late August this year, the one millionth tourist of this year was welcomed with great fanfare at the airport. Tourism from people in Europe and the Middle East is steadily rising. While India for now continues to be Sri Lanka’s largest source of tourists, the biggest rise in tourism this year has been from Chinese visitors with year-over-year increase in excess of 100% on a monthly basis.”

Making reference to Ports and Chinese Investment in Sri Lanka he observed that China has turned out to be the aiding growth and providing a strong geopolitical and economic ally. The Chinese-led project to landfill 575 acres to create Colombo Port City adjacent to the capital of Colombo and its current port is a record breaking private sector investment in Sri Lanka. While it may seem bold now, Sri Lanka is seeking to compete with Singapore and Dubai as a maritime center.

While other Chinese financed projects exist at other port facilities in the country, this one alone is estimated to be a $1.4 billion project. While India remains Sri Lanka’s largest trading partner, China replaced the U.S. as Sri Lanka’s second largest trading partner last year.

He has also cited the anticipation of Sri Lanka to increase per capita income in the two to three years to be defined as middle income country by the World Basnk. When Sri Lanka moves on to be middle income in a couple of two years the credit rating will improve as well.

Jon also makes reference to two principal risks to Sri Lanka economy. They are a global economic downturn and the small chance that political instability upon the country again by a political minority, beyond that there are currency exchange risks for foreign investors and there is the risk that investing somewhere else could do better. That said, all parties quoted here believe January’s election will lead an economic boost in the near term and stable growth in the long term.

What is FORBES ?

Forbes – Magazine – background

Editor-in-chief Steve Forbes
Editor Randall Lane
Categories Money
Frequency Bi-Weekly
Total circulation
(2013)
931,558
First issue 1917; 97 years ago
Company Forbes, Inc.
Country United States
Based in New York City
Language English
Website www.forbes.com
ISSN 0015-6914

Forbes is an American business magazine owned by Forbes, Inc. Published biweekly, it features original articles on finance, industry, investing, and marketing topics. Forbes also reports on related subjects such as technology, communications, science, and law. Its headquarters are in New York City. Primary competitors in the national business magazine category are Fortune and Bloomberg Business week. The magazine is well known for its lists and rankings, including its lists of the richest Americans (the Forbes 400) and rankings of world’s top companies (the Forbes Global 2000). The motto of Forbes magazine is “The Capitalist Tool“. Its chairman and editor-in-chief is Steve Forbes, and its CEO is Mike Perlis.

Let me also remind you some of the quotes published in Forbes Magazine :

  1. Teach self-denial and make its practice pleasure, and you can create for the world a destiny more sublime that ever issued from the brain of the wildest dreamer. – Sir Walter Scott
  2. An un aspiring person believes according to what he achieves. An aspiring person achieves according to what he believes.Sri Chinmoy
  3. True vision is always twofold. It involves emotional comprehensions as well as physical perception.Ross Parmenter
  4. It always seems impossible until it’s done.Nelson Mandela

Company history

Forbes Building on Fifth Avenue in New York City (now owned by New York University)

  1. C. Forbes, a financial columnist for the Hearst papers, and his partner Walter Drey, the general manager of the Magazine of Wall Street, founded Forbes magazine in 1917. Forbes provided the money and the name and Drey provided the publishing expertise. The original name of the magazine was Forbes: Devoted to Doers and Doings. Drey became vice-president of the B.C. Forbes Publishing Company, while B.C. Forbes became editor-in-chief, a post he held until his death in 1954. B.C. Forbes was assisted in his later years by his two eldest sons, Bruce Charles Forbes (1916–1964) and Malcolm Stevenson Forbes (1917–1990).

Bruce Forbes took over on his father’s death, and his strengths lay in streamlining operations and developing marketing. During his tenure, 1954–1964, the magazine’s circulation nearly doubled.

On Malcolm’s death, his eldest son Malcolm Stevenson “Steve” Forbes Jr. (1947–) became President and Chief Executive of Forbes and Editor-in-Chief of Forbes magazine. Between 1961 and 1999 the magazine was edited by James Michaels. In 1993, under Michaels, Forbes was a finalist for the National Magazine Award. In 2006, an investment group Elevation Partners that includes rock star Bono bought a minority interest in the company. A 2009 New York Times report said: “40 percent of the enterprise was sold … for a reported $300 million, setting the value of the enterprise at $750 million. According to Mark M. Edmiston of AdMedia Partners, ‘It’s probably not worth half of that now.'” In November 2013, Forbes Media, which publishes Forbes magazine, was put up for sale.

Sales documents prepared by Deutsche Bank revealed that while Forbes is seeking price of over $400M, the 2012 EBITDA was only $15M. Forbes sold a majority of itself to Asian investor group Integrated Whale Media Investments in July of 2014.

Sale of headquarters and relocation to Jersey City

In January 2010, Forbes reached an agreement to sell its headquarters building located on Fifth Avenue in Manhattan to New York University. Terms of the deal were not publicly reported, but Forbes will continue to occupy the space under a five-year sale-leaseback arrangement. The headquarters will move to the Newport section of Jersey City in 2014.

Source : Wikipedia

Politicians may come with various predictions. Even the astrologers used to predict a lot. Why, some intellectuals also join in this process. But whatever said and done, people look for an accurate wise source to predict their future. But to do that, you need to analyze a lot.  You need to analyze many factors. There a only a handful of sources predict the future happenings in a more accurate manner. I am sure “Forbes” will be one of those reliable sources.

 

J.Yogaraj – Senior Journalist

Comments

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